Cyber risk derives from an integrated ecosystem that requires assessments of information technology systems, defences, human factors, attacker tactics and incentives, the larger political context, and many other considerations. Cyber risk is complex, adaptive, sentient, high tech. Nearly all companies are under constant surveillance and assault from threat actors. Cyber is the domain of both criminals and nation state actors, and as the world becomes cyber physical more and more critical assets stand at risk.
How can it be measured?
At its core, this is a human system that can be measured probabilistically with the right expertise, data and the right tools.
Amid all the uncertainty lies an overall landscape that behaves like an evolving economy with rapid technology diffusion rates. The ecosystem is comprised of humans following incentive structures, which admits of moving equilibria. A huge amount of available data and information is available to simulate this economy and generate reliable, probabilistic predictions.
Where human expertise meets best-in-class analytics
Beyond cyber expertise, our modelling and simulation team includes experts trained in complex domains like national security and intelligence, space vehicles, aircraft, off-shore oil platforms, and brain-computer interfaces.
Our underwriters are veterans in the cyber market with deep quantitative backgrounds to complement underwriting skills.
We seek smarter underwriting decisions that outperform the market and deliver customer value.
Risk analysis
Measurements of impact of risks and their potential evolution over time
Pricing
Risk-based, competitive, AI-driven pricing.
Portfolio management
Sophisticated portfolio management and aggregation tools
Underwriting centred
Everything we do is risk and portfolio focused
Modelling and simulation
Technology with the power to tackle more complex risks
Cyber risk is complex, sentient and high tech. It’s constantly evolving – and constantly adapting to the defences designed to stop it in its tracks. While it’s hard to predict individual cyber attacks with any degree of certainty, we have the industry expertise to study and analyse the economic and political spheres that underpin the cyber ecosystem as a whole.
Cyber-Tooth, our proprietary machine-learning model, assesses over a million companies, their defences, current attacker activity, and historical attack trends. For each individual company, we examine the nature and financial value of its assets, and the extent of its vulnerability to different types of attacks. We compare that data against emerging and historical attack trends to predict expected losses – establishing a rigorous basis for recommended insurance and reinsurance pricing.
Cyber-Tooth by numbers
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2,000+ raw attributes per company
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3M+ ingested insurance policies providing real data for assessing losses by coverage area
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20+ machine-learning models simulating seven distinct elements of insured risk
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10 billion+ losses per report
Our globally-unique dataset on claims and historical performance underpins the unparalleled accuracy of our modelling
Our model ingests more than 2,000 raw attributes per company and more than 1,000 datasets to evaluate risk.
The model simulates more than 10 billion losses per report, tracked across 80 attributes, representing about 100 terabytes of data and 10 trillion calculations per simulation. It deploys over 20 machine-learning models to simulate seven distinct components of insured risk:
Frequency
Severity
Loss type/attack path
Disaster scenarios
Coverage areas
Policy terms
Portfolio performance
Cyber-Tooth’s outputs
Because we hold our proprietary model in house, our underwriters and capital partners benefit from complete transparency into CyberTooth’s operations and functionality. Our modelling capability enables us to deliver detailed assessments of:
Exceedance probability
Occurrence/annual exceedance probability
Gross loss tables
Correlated risks
Losses by coverage area
Probable maximum loss
Tail value at risk
Realistic disaster scenarios